The criticality of the implementation of the Innovation Investment Plan “Ensuring Agricultural Production and Ecosystem Services under the lens of Climate Change” is at a very high level of implementation necessity.
This necessity arises from the particularly adverse effects of climate change that have been observed in the last decade:
- (a) on the water resources used for irrigation,
- (b) on agricultural production,
- (c) on food production and
- (d) on the biodiversity of Region of Central Macedonia as well as the entire Greek and Euro-Mediterranean area, as described in the following paragraphs.
Projection of future climate change in Greece: Projected changes in precipitation during the 21st century show strong spatial variability, with mean annual precipitation projected to increase in high-latitude regions as well as in humid mid-latitude regions width and to decrease in dry mid-latitude areas, including the Greek and Mediterranean areas, according to the Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The global mean surface air temperature is projected to increase by 0.3 – 0.7 oC in the period 2016 – 2035, by 0.9 – 2.0 oC in the period 2045 – 2065 and by 1.1 – 2, 6 oC in the period 2081 – 2100, compared to the period 1986 – 2005, according to the moderate climate forcing scenario.
The average temperature increase in the European area in the year 2045 is predicted to be equal to 2 oC, with the southernmost regions, including Greece, more likely to show a greater increase in temperature especially during the summer months. Impacts of climate change on water resources: Surface and underground water resources have suffered significant quantitative and qualitative degradation in the last decade, due to pressures from competing water uses, combined with the adverse effects of climate change on the hydrological cycle.
Climate change significantly affects the availability of water resources in Greece and the Euro-Mediterranean area, with precipitation and temperature being the main climate parameters that affect the availability of water resources. According to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, for every one degree increase in global temperature relative to pre-industrial levels and up to the limit of 2.7 oC, a reduction in renewable water resources of at least 20% is expected for an additional 7% of the population. As for the average annual stream runoff, it is expected to decrease by 10-30% by the middle of the 21st century, in the mid-latitude dry areas, including the Greek area, following the regional and seasonal distribution of precipitation and temperature.Also, infiltration into the underground aquifers is expected to decrease in the future and in particular, this decrease is expected to exceed the decrease in the amount of precipitation.
For each degree of temperature increase, an additional 4% of groundwater aquifers is expected to experience a 30% decrease in water availability, while an additional 1% of groundwater aquifers is expected to experience a 70% decrease. Regarding the behavior of lakes in climate change conditions, their level, water surface and stored water volume are expected to decrease in the future, as a consequence of the decrease in precipitation and the increase of evaporation from the water surface, due to the increase of air temperature. Effects of climate change on agricultural production: The tendency to deplete surface and underground water resources in rural areas is attributed to both climate change and over-abstraction of water for crop irrigation. Agriculture is the main user of water in Mediterranean countries, accounting for about 80% of total water withdrawals. The predicted impacts on agriculture are linked to a number of climate factors, which directly or indirectly affect crop growth conditions. In particular, the projected increase in temperature is expected to cause an increase in evapotranspiration, increasing the water requirements of plants, while at the same time, changes in the daily variation of temperature may affect the productivity of certain crops. Furthermore, the decrease in the amount of precipitation is predicted to intensify the pressures exerted on the water resources of rural areas, while changes in the intensity of precipitation are expected to be accompanied by flooding and damage to crops. In addition, changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to create uncertainty in the temporal availability and adequacy of water resources, showing extreme drought events and significantly affecting crop irrigation water needs, which in turn affect water bodies.
The increase in the demand of crops in water, combined with the change in eating habits and its increaseneed for food security, make certain the ever greater depletion of water resources, especially in rural areas. Of the total withdrawals from underground aquifers, the share of abstraction for irrigation use is expected to increase due to the decrease in the reliability of the availability of surface water resources caused by climate change. This option is expected to create additional problems in areas where infiltration into underground aquifers is less than withdrawals. Rural areas are also predicted to face significant problems with a decrease in the agricultural income of their residents due to both a decrease in agricultural production and an increase in pumping costs due to the drop in the level of underground aquifers. Cumulative economic losses are expected to worsen poverty levels in rural areas, making their economic recovery difficult. Impact of climate change on food production: Adequate food production is linked to agricultural productivity and food price stability, which are expected to be adversely affected by climate change, according to the World Food and Agriculture Organization Reports. A major boost to the study of adequate food production took place in 2008 due to the large increase in food prices recorded. Predictions for the evolution of climate conditions in the coming decades highlight the existence of significant problems for safe food production. In particular, the crops of wheat, rice and maize are expected to be negatively affected in the areas where an increase in the average temperature equal to or greater than 2 oC is predicted, as is expected to happen in the Greek area. Effects of Climate Change on Biodiversity: Biodiversity refers to the diversity among individuals of the same species, the diversity among species as well as the diversity among ecosystems.
The preservation of biodiversity is of major importance for agritourism areas, while its loss brings about a degradation of the services provided by ecosystems. In each wetland ecosystem, a variety of human activities take place, as well as biological, physical and chemical processes, which are related to four main categories: hydrology, biochemical cycling, habitats and climate. Some of the important functions performed by wetlands are: water storage, maintaining the climate at normal levels, reducing the concentration of nutrients, naturally improving water quality, maintaining biological diversity and maintaining the biological productivity of animal and plant organisms. The level at which the functions of a wetland are performed is mainly influenced by the human activities that develop both within its narrow boundaries and within its watershed. The balance between the wetland and its wider area affects both the living conditions of the animal and plant organisms related to the wetland ecosystem, as well as the living conditions of the people living in the area, including the exercise of their economic activities. Lake wetlands are an ecological system, which is composed of two subsystems: the lake and the wetland. These two subsystems interact and depend to a significant extent on each other. In this way, the anthropogenic activities that take place in a lakeside area and affect the quantitative and qualitative state of the lake, also cause effects on the associated wetland. Furthermore, wetland functions strongly interact with each other and therefore, degradation of one wetland function may have direct positive or negative effects on other wetland functions as well. Therefore, the preservation of each function of the wetland separately is particularly important, while in case of degradation of the wetland, its restoration is imperative. Changing land uses as well as pollution and over-exploitation of water resources are the main threats to ecosystems. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pressures on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems are expected to intensify due to climate change, with 20-30% of known flora and fauna predicted to face an increased risk of extinction. Changes in the level and free water surface of lakes are expected to cause changes in the structure and functions of the associated wetland ecosystems. The degradation of wetland functions causes adverse effects on the area’s biodiversity, which is usually expressed by a reduction in the number of species that live in or are associated with the specific wetland. The close relationship between water resources and wetland ecosystems of an area makes the management and restoration of wetland functions one of the bases for the sustainable management of any watershed. The concept of Integrated Water Resources Management is part of the broader framework of Ecosystem Management, which refers to the integration of ecological, economic and social principles for the management of biological and natural systems, in a way that protects the ecological sustainability, natural diversity and productivity of landscapes-natural areas. The ability to restore a degraded wetland ecosystem depends on numerous factors, the main ones being the type of wetland, its degree of degradation, the ecological functions it performs, land uses and human activities throughout the watershed and the ability to create and maintain appropriate hydrological conditions to support wetland functions. The above adverse effects of climate change on water resources, agricultural production, food production and biodiversity have already had an impact on the agricultural activity of the Central Macedonia Region.
To investigate the changing trend of agricultural economic activity in the Region of Central Macedonia, employment data was collected by economic activity sector from the database of the Hellenic Statistical Service, for the years 2001 and 2011 (most recent year with available data). For the year 2001, the employment rates in the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors as well as the percentage of the unemployed in the Region of Central Macedonia were equal to 15.11%, 22.13%, 50.52% and 12.24%, while for the entire Greek area they amounted to 13.45%, 20.29%, 54.61% and 11.65%, respectively. The comparison of these percentages shows the significant presence of the primary sector in the Region of Central Macedonia. For the year 2011, the employment rates in the primary, secondary and tertiary production sectors as well as the unemployment rate amounted to 9.02%, 14.59%, 54.56% and 21.83% for the Region of Central Macedonia and in 8.12%, 14.27%, 58.89% and 18.72% for the entire Greek area, respectively. It is therefore established that the employment rates in the primary and secondary sectors decreased significantly, while employment in the tertiary production sector increased as well as the percentage of the unemployed both in the Region of Central Macedonia and in the whole of Greece. This fact indicates the downward trend followed by employment in the primary sector, which must be reversed. In the context of the sustainable management of water resources, the agricultural sector and wetlands, the Innovation Investment Plan “Ensuring Agricultural Production and Ecosystem Services in the light of Climate Change” is in agreement with the main axes and priorities of the Framework Directive 2000/ 60/EC “establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy”, the Common Agricultural Policy, which proposes measures for rural development, income support for farmers and measures for the food market and the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations Nations, which include the implementation of resilient agricultural practices to increase agricultural productivity and production, preserve ecosystems and strengthen the adaptive capacity of rural areas to climate change, extreme weather events, drought and floods by 2030.
The implementation of the Innovation Investment Plan “Di insurance of Agricultural Production and Ecosystem Services under the perspective of Climate Change” is also in agreement with the Regional Operational Program of the Region of Central Macedonia 2014-2020.In particular, the Region of Central Macedonia, following the new regulations of the European Structural and Investment Funds (ESIF), defined specific Thematic Objectives (TS), each of which includes individual Investment Priorities (IP).
The relevant Thematic Objectives and Investment Priorities include
- TS 1 “Strengthening research, technological development and innovation”,
- TS 3 “Improving the competitiveness of small and medium-sized enterprises and the agricultural sector and the fisheries and aquaculture sector”,
- the TS 5 “Promoting adaptation to climate change, risk prevention and management” and
- TS 6 “Preserving and protecting the environment and promoting resource efficiency”.
TS 1 “Strengthening research, technological development and innovation” includes OP 1b “Promotion of business investment in research and innovation, development of links and synergies between businesses, research and development centers and the higher education sector, in particular through the promotion investments in the development of products and services, technology transfer, social innovation, ecological innovation…”.
TS 3 “Improving the competitiveness of small and medium-sized enterprises and the agricultural sector and the fisheries and aquaculture sector” includes OP 3b “Promoting entrepreneurship, in particular by facilitating the economic exploitation of new ideas and supporting the creation of new enterprises, among others through business incubators”, OP 3c “Supporting the creation and expansion of advanced capabilities for the development of products and services” and OP 3d “Supporting the capacity of small and medium-sized enterprises to develop in regional, national and international markets and to participate in innovation processes ».
TS 5 “Promoting adaptation to climate change, prevention and risk management” includes OP 5a “Supporting investments for climate change adaptation as well as ecosystem-based techniques”.
TS 6 “Preserving and protecting the environment and promoting resource efficiency” includes OP 6b “Investments in the water sector, in order to meet the requirements of the environmental acquis of the Union and to address the needs identified by the Member States for investments exceeding these requirements’ and OP 6d ‘Protection and restoration of biodiversity and soil and promotion of ecosystem services, including through the Natura 2000 network, and green infrastructure’.